Gujarat Elections-Is it a Cake walk?

Its Gujarat and Only Gujarat that's the talk for the last 2 Month's in all forms of Media. Opinion's, Survey's are galore with everyone has their own take. Very few realistic BJP supporters were skeptical on the clarion call of Amit Shah that it would cross 150 seats sounding too Optimistic. 

One need to remember that Gujarat is already missing not only a Flamboyant,Charismatic Modi but also his administrative ability. Modi in 2012 with not much dissent coming from Patidars and Congress at the Centre going through rough time with Scandals coming out from its closet it was a cake walk for the BJP and ended up with 115 seats out of 182 members in its Assembly.

Politics is very crude so as to say when it comes to Voting ( Swing Votes)  based on the Leader and not for the Party. Was BJP did take a right decision in selecting Anandiben Patel as its CM knowing too well that she has good relation with Modi baiters from the Hindu Right Wing leaders like Praveen Togadia, Sanjay Joshi. There were murmurs that Patidar agitation was instigated by Togadia and Anandiben was seen socializing with them and turned a blind eye to the Agitation. 

Anandiben inept in handling the agitation ( later Fierce crackdown by the State Police (as per Anandiben Husband ) was at the behest of Amit Shah who always interfered in the State Home Ministry was the main cause for the Patidars to take a stand against BJP ( he had written a letter to PM complaining on Amit Shah's Action). Leave alone Anandiben inept handling of Dalit/ Patidar agitation or lack of administrative skills she started hitting headlines for all the wrong reason, her nepotism in promoting her daughter caused such an embarrassment to the Party. Much needed Course correction was done in replacing her with Vijay Rupani a 1st time MLA but not without dissent within....

From one of the BJP's Decorated State to rumble within.. things were not the same , Did Amit Shah missed the trick? Should he have stayed back with the State maybe that's the debatable point.

 

Coming to the Ongoing Poll, In an Ideal Scenario comparing 2012 w/o Modi (CM) one can straightway deduce 10-15 seats ie anywhere between 95-100. But no one doubts the BJP's win but by what margin is a big question?

Things to be Factored

• Kapil Sibal in trying to delay Ram Mandir which negates Rahul Gandhi temple hoping ( to swing Majority Votes) ,

• Jignesh Mevani (backed by Rahul) gets funds from Left leaning Liberals, Fund and Support from SDPI a front for PFI ( under NIA investigations for Conversion factories and Terror Connect to IS),

• Ahmed Patel Posters asking for Muslim Votes,

• Uncouth Mani Shankar Aiyer #Neech comment

• Late Surge and Last mile connectivity ( Karyakarta's of BJP who give their soul for the Party) 

• Last but not the least Modi's magic in the final Phase rally are the few factors that may help BJP  ending up with 110-120 seats. If ( Big IF) the factors mentioned happens.

Observing the present run up, BJP is fighting one of the hardest battle, fighting against 22 yrs of Anti-Incumbency, Non Presence of Modi  and a Party which was once a Decorated BJP state with few rumblings within, a course correction is imminent within the Gujarat Party. If BJP manages to win even one more seat than the Previous tally 115 it is a bonus..